As the trade deadline approaches, many discussions about “selling high” will enter the conversation. It’s a pretty easy concept to grasp. When a guy is playing unexpectedly well, you should probably trade him while he’s at peak value. It’s more nuanced than that, but that’s the general idea.
Failure to do so can be disastrous.
An example:
Entering the All-Star break in 2011, Atlanta Braves pitcher Jair Jurrjens was 12-3 with a 1.87 ERA. He was also benefiting from a .256 batting average on balls in play, an 84.1% strand rate, and a 4.2% HR/FB rate. He was only striking out 5.29 guys per nine innings and was the definition of a regression candidate. Sure enough, regress he did. His second half was rough. He still finished 13-6 with a 2.96 ERA but his post-All-Star break performance looked a lot more similar to his career norms.
Still, despite coming back to earth in a big way during the second half, Jurrjens garnered tremendous trade interest in the offseason. According to Jon Heyman (then with MLB Network), as many as 10 teams were involved in the bidding for the Curacao native. So, what were the Braves able to get for their young hurler’s flukey first half? Nothing. They stood pat, held onto him, and watched as he pitched so poorly in 2012 (6.89 ERA with almost as many walks as strikeouts) that he would ultimately get non-tendered in the offsesason.
A few teams are facing similar situations right now. We’ve already seen a couple sell-high trades (Drew Pomeranz, Aaron Hill). Which teams still have a Jurrjens just begging to be traded at max value?
Philadelphia Phillies: Jeanmar Gomez, CL
To date, Gomez has recorded 26 saves and pitched to an impressive 2.76 ERA. Those numbers alone make him look like a premier bullpen piece. That just simply isn’t the case. Despite his lofty saves total, Gomez is not a shutdown closer. He is a guy who was in the right place at the right time. The Phillies have the perfect blend of quality pitching and abysmal offense to result in many low-scoring, close games. That has allowed Gomez to have ample save opportunities. Until 2016, he was a journeyman reliever with below-average velocity, unimpressive off-speed pitches, and a low strikeout rate. In 2016, he’s all those things plus 26 saves. If the Phillies wait, they could be taking a huge gamble. There’s a big difference between trading a guy in the closer role on a successful run and a middle reliever who tops out at 91 mph.
Cincinnati Reds: Adam Duvall, OF
I’m sorry Reds fans, but Duvall just isn’t as good as you think. Don’t get me wrong, he’s been a surprising success. His 23 home runs and .536 slugging percentage show some very real power. You can’t fake being that strong. But with an on-base percentage of .291 and a strikeout rate of 28.4%, Duvall is one slump away from being Jeff Francoeur. Luckily for the Reds, homers are sexy. A power-starved team vying for a playoff spot will dream on those home run totals. They’ll part with way too much to get them. I know the Reds are rebuilding and that Duvall has tons of team control left but he’ll be 28 by the end of the season, he’s no prospect. This isn’t the emergence of a franchise cornerstone, it’s a golden opportunity to flesh out the farm system.
San Diego Padres: Melvin Upton Jr., OF
Just two years ago, the player formerly known as Bossman appeared to be a washed-up has been. His signature power-speed combination was gone and his already high strikeout rates were becoming Adam Dunn-esque. It was not a pretty sight. In 2016, he’s experienced something of a career renaissance. With 16 home runs, 20 stolen bases, and the best defense he’s shown since 2012, Upton has been a quality big league outfielder. However, he’s still due $17.05 million next year and the Padres aren’t expected to be contenders for a few years. His contract is only barely movable with his current performance, any regression and they’ll be saddled with it. With the recent injury to Joey Rickard, the Baltimore Orioles could be a fit.
There are others who could fit this list (Rich Hill of the Oakland Athletics and Carlos Beltran of the New York Yankees come to mind). Selling high can be an unpopular move. What fan base wants to see a good player leave? However, it’s often the correct, shrewd baseball move. With these three guys, the window could be closing on maximizing a potential return.
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