Billy Hamilton has been dropped to the bottom of the order by Cincinnati Reds‘ manager Bryan Price. This is a decision that shows why Price is one of the worst managers in franchise history.
Hamilton should bat leadoff for the Reds or the Louisville Bats. Batting him eighth or ninth is foolish.
No one disputes that Hamilton is deficient when it comes to getting on base. His .274 OBP in 454 plate appearances in 2015 was pathetic. That alone should have been enough to motivate Hamilton to develop more patience and discipline at the plate.
Unfortunately, it has not. His inadequacies at the plate have continued through Cactus League play where he has produced just a .222 OBP.
Still, Hamilton has to be judged by more than just his OBP. He also has to be judged by his ability to reach scoring position unaided. That means his ability to steal bases.
The most basic number that shows success of a leadoff hitter is runs scored. Hamilton batted leadoff in 46 games last year and all but one game was a start. He scored 31 runs batting leadoff with an OBP of .291. Over a full season of 150 games, that means Hamilton would score 101 runs. His OBP batting ninth was .264.
The primary reason for Hamilton’s disparity between OBP and runs scored is his stolen base success rate. Hamilton stole 57 bases in 2015 and was caught just eight times. That includes a perfect 16-for-16 in stealing third base.
Hamilton stole one less base in 2014 but was thrown out stealing 15 more times. Hamilton batted leadoff for 602 plate appearances in 2014. He scored just 70 runs despite a .291 OBP. His projected runs scored total for 2015 based upon the same 602 plate appearances would have been 90.
Unfortunately, Price overlooks the basic math. If the Reds had any better option to bat leadoff than Hamilton, this glaring failure could be overlooked.
Price’s failure to competently manage is why he will be lucky to last to the All-Star break as the Reds’ manager in the final year of his contract.
Robb Hoff writes about the Cincinnati Reds for OutsidePitch MLB. You can follow him on Twitter and Facebook.
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