Zack Cozart is set to bat leadoff for the Cincinnati Reds. The trade value for the 30-year-old shortstop would spike if he can show he can hit leadoff.
Cozart has batted atop the order before. He’s hit just .221 with a .267 on-base percentage in 529 plate appearances as a leadoff hitter. Most of those plate appearances (471) came during the Reds’ 2012 season. The Reds won the NL Central despite Cozart hitting just .222 with a .262 OBP as the primary leadoff hitter that year.
Nothing in his past suggests that Cozart can be a good leadoff hitter. His overall career numbers are those of a bottom-of-the-order hitter. He’s hit just .245 with a .284 in 2,013 PAs over five seasons with the Reds.
Cozart’s lack of past success as a leadoff hitter won’t stop the Reds, though. Not only does Cozart lack the OBP expected of a leadoff hitter, he has all of 14 career stolen bases.
Manager Bryan Price demoted speedster Billy Hamilton to the bottom of the order to make way for Cozart. Hamilton is a career .242 leadoff hitter with a .291 OBP. He’s stolen 110 bases as a leadoff hitter in 234 career games batting first.
Hamilton stole just one fewer base in the first month of last season (13) than Cozart has stolen during his entire five-season career. He did that despite a .217/.278 slash for the month.
The idea to bat Cozart leadoff may look like a hare-brained one by Price. That might be all it really is. If so, add it to the list of why Price is one of the worst managers in Reds’ history.
But there is an angle to the decision that could help jump start Cozart’s trade value. After missing most of last season with recovery from ACL surgery, Cozart needs to come out of the gate strong in 2016.
The better Cozart performs, the higher his trade value and the sooner he can be traded. For a team coming off a 98-loss season, who hits leadoff probably doesn’t matter too much otherwise.
Robb Hoff writes about the Cincinnati Reds for OutsidePitch MLB. You can follow him on Twitter and Facebook.
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